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09/14/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If you listened hard enough last Thursday night, it seemed, you could almost hear the angry words of Eminem buzzing around in Peyton Manning's head.
"Nowadays everybody wanna talk like they got somethin' to say.
But nothin' comes out when they move their lips.
Just a bunch of gibberish.
And (insert defamatory expletive here) act like they forgot about Pey."
After all, following an offseason in which every 2006 pretender - New England, San Diego and Dallas, to name a few - was given a consensus nod to rise past his own reigning championship team in Indianapolis and into the 2007 driver's seat, the returning Super Bowl MVP was understandably irked.
So, with modified hip-hop lyrics perhaps still resonating, he and the Colts hit the turf against another flavor-of-the-month favorite of the cognoscenti - the New Orleans Saints - and came away with a 41-10 exclamation-point win before 57,361 true believers at the RCA Dome.
Manning threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns in the victory, hitting Reggie Wayne seven times for 115 of those yards through the air while turning and handing off to new feature back Joseph Addai for 118 more on the ground in 23 carries.
As statements go, it was delivered loud and clear.
Still, with this week comes another similar test.
The Tennessee Titans, with former college phenom and current Madden '08 cover boy Vince Young directing traffic, are perceived by some as the next visible threat to the Colts' dominance of the AFC's South Division, especially after they finished last season with six wins in eight games - including a 20-17 downing of Indy last December in Nashville.
The Titans got started successfully as well last week, winning 13-10 at division foe Jacksonville in a game controlled not by Young and Co. on offense, but instead by a defense that limited the host Jaguars to just 272 total yards, forced one turnover and helped the visitors to a mammoth 36:55-23:05 edge in time of possession.
Indianapolis and Tennessee are the only teams to win the South Division since it was created in 2002. The four-pronged group's remaining entry - the Houston Texans - also won last week, defeating Kansas City, 20-3.
SERIES HISTORY
Indianapolis holds a 14-10 lead in its all-time regular season series with Tennessee, but had a seven-game win streak in the series snapped with a 20-17 loss at LP Field in Week 13 of last season. The Colts were 14-13 home winners when the teams met at the RCA Dome in Week 5. Indy swept home-and-homes against the Titans in 2003, 2004, and 2005.
The only postseason meeting between the two was in a 1999 AFC Divisional Playoff, when Tennessee scored a 19-16 road victory en route to a Super Bowl appearance.
The Titans' Jeff Fisher has a 4-7 record against Indianapolis, including the aforementioned playoff victory. The Colts' Tony Dungy is 7-5 against both Fisher and Tennessee all-time, including an 0-2 mark during his tenure in Tampa Bay.
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
As prefaced earlier, Indianapolis has nothing short of an embarrassment of riches on offense. Manning and his mates were held to just 10 points in the opening 30 minutes against New Orleans, then busted loose for 31 - four TDs and an Adam Vinatieri field goal - in the final two quarters. Aside from relative youngsters Wayne and Addai, the corps also includes veteran star Marvin Harrison, who caught four balls for 83 yards and a touchdown. In 10 career games against the Titans, Harrison has averaged 93.3 yards per outing. Also, little-used tight end Bryan Fletcher has an 11.3-yards-after-catch average in four lifetime games against Tennessee.
Truth told, the Titans used opportunism on defense and special teams every bit as much as Young to engineer their last 2006 flourish, and that trend continued last week in northeast Florida. Ends Antwan Odom and Travis LaBoy had a sack apiece of Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard and the entire unit muffled backs Maurice Jones-Drew (32 yards rushing, 28 receiving) and Fred Taylor (16 rushing) while holding them to 76 combined total yards. Ex- Colt Nick Harper had six unassisted tackles and forced a fumble in his Tennessee debut, while lineman Albert Haynesworth - known mostly for his spikes-to-the-face suspension last season - chipped in with five tackles.
WHEN THE TITANS HAVE THE BALL
Young will run a lot. Young will throw some. And he will be fun to watch. That much is a given. But this season, it seems he has a few more toys to play with as well. Running back Chris Brown dashed for a league-best 175 yards on 19 carries against Jacksonville, while former USC standout LenDale White finally broke through for a career-best 66 yards on 18 carries. Wide receiver Justin Gage's two catches were a paltry team-leading total, but veteran wideout Eric Moulds is also in the mix for 2007 and needs 343 receiving yards to reach 10,000 for his career. Elsewhere, tight end Bo Scaife has 15 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown in four career games against the Colts.
Indianapolis faced the league's reigning MVP in Drew Brees and a pair of premier running backs in Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister last week, but didn't allow an offensive touchdown by the Saints. McAllister and Bush combined for just 76 yards on the ground, and Brees managed just 192 through the air and was intercepted twice. Defensive end Dwight Freeney has 10 sacks in 10 career games against the Titans, while second-year linebacker Freddy Keiaho recorded his first career INT last week. Cornerback Marlin Jackson's only 2006 pick came against Tennessee in the December game between the teams last season.
FANTASY FOCUS
Anyone holding any of the Colts' weapons would be a fool not to use them, regardless of weekly opposition. Manning is, well...Manning, which more often than not is a guaranteed good day for either Wayne and Harrison. And, with Dominic Rhodes off to Oakland, Addai will get the bulk of the carries against defenses trained to look for the pass. For Tennessee, Young is a proven point- producer, while Brown could be a chic pick-up if he adds a second straight 100-yard game to his 2007 resume. Defensively, neither team is a gem, though they are both improved from last season.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Barring a catastrophic injury to Manning, the Colts will be deservedly favored to win perhaps all but one game on their schedule this season. That's not to say there won't be challenges, however, and this could be one of them. Look for Young to create some problems, as he always does, with big plays and improvisation. But, when push comes to shove, it's still Indianapolis. And, over four quarters, that should be good enough against a foe that's gaining ground, but not there yet.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 30, Titans 20
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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