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09/01/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - September is the time of year for temperatures to drop, but for Philadelphia slugger Ryan Howard it's his month to start heating up.
Howard and the Phillies will shoot for back-to-back winning series Wednesday afternoon in the finale of a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.
Howard ended a lengthy home run drought in last night's 8-4 win over Los Angeles with a three-run blast in the third inning, his first home run since July 27. Howard had just one RBI and 16 K's since then before crushing an offering from Dodgers reliever Ramon Troncoso.
"I felt like I've had some good at-bats and good swings over the last five, six games," Howard said. "I've just been hitting balls right at people. I was able to just get one, connect and get it over everybody I guess."
He guessed right, and now it's time to see if the All-Star first baseman can keep up his fall numbers. In 162 regular-season games in September and October in his career, Howard has batted .314 with 52 home runs and 141 RBI. The late production has been key to Philadelphia's consecutive trips to the World Series.
Brian Schneider gave the Phillies a 3-1 lead with a three-run homer in the second inning last night and Carlos Ruiz drove in a pair of runs to keep them 1 1/2 games ahead of San Francisco in the wild card standings. Kyle Kendrick got the start and picked up his ninth win (9-7) even though he gave up four runs and seven hits in five innings for the Phils, who entered this series fresh off a three-game sweep at San Diego.
The Phillies, currently three games behind Atlanta for the NL East lead, hope to see a better pitching display from veteran All-Star Roy Oswalt when he takes the LA mound today. Oswalt is 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA in six starts since coming over from Houston and is unbeaten in his last five starts (3-0) -- all Philadelphia wins. He threw eight innings of one-run ball and struck out six in last Friday's 3-2 win at San Diego.
Oswalt beat the Dodgers back on August 11, hurling seven shutout innings and striking out five in a 2-0 triumph. The righty is 7-3 with a 3.11 ERA in 11 career matchups (10 starts) against Los Angeles.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers have dropped three of four games and are 6 1/2 games behind the Phillies for the NL Wild Card lead. Carlos Monasterios tried to replicate what starter Hiroki Kuroda was able to do in a series-opening win, but was yanked after two innings for giving up five runs and five hits.
"Monasterios is still learning," said Dodgers manager Joe Torre. "We crept back into it, but we just couldn't keep the pressure on them when they scored those last two runs."
James Loney hit a two-run homer and finished with three RBI in defeat.
Hoping to get Los Angeles back on track Wednesday afternoon will be Clayton Kershaw, who has lost three of his last four decisions. He did factor in the outcome of last Friday's 6-2 win at Colorado and limited the Rockies to a run on five hits and two walks in six innings.
Kershaw is 11-8 with a 3.01 earned run average in 27 starts this season and squared off with the Phillies on August 12 at Citizens Bank Park. The lefty allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings for the no-decision and is 0-3 in five career starts in this series.
The Phillies took two of three meetings with Los Angeles in that series last month and, of course, have beaten the Dodgers in each of the past two National League Championship Series.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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