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03/13/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are quite a few rivalries in the NBA but don't count the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers among them.
A rivalry generally contains a little give-and-take or back-and-forth. When the Spurs and Clippers get together, it's as one-sided as it gets. San Antonio shoots for its 16th straight win in the series tonight when they play host to the Clips in the Alamo City.
LA hasn't beaten the Spurs since a 91-83 triumph in Hollywood on Dec. 1, 2003 and has lost 23 of the past 24 games in the series, including 14 consecutive in San Antonio.
In fact, the Clippers' 15-game skid against San Antonio is the league's longest current drought against a single opponent and LA has never won in the AT&T Center.
The Spurs, who currently stand seventh in the Western Conference standings, continued their march to the postseason last night with a 103-85 rout in Minneapolis. Richard Jefferson and George Hill each scored 19 points in that one as San Antonio beat Minnesota for the 11th straight time.
Tim Duncan posted 15 points and eight rebounds for the Spurs, who won for the fifth time in six games.
Jefferson had nine boards and Hill dished out eight assists for San Antonio, which hasn't lost to the Timberwolves since January 3, 2007. Hill started in place again for Tony Parker, who sat out his third straight contest with a broken right ring finger.
"We know he's a very capable scorer," San Antonio guard Manu Ginobili said of Hill. "We've been doing it behind Tony a lot of games. Now he's taking over, playing more minutes. He's playing with more confidence."
The Clippers, meanwhile, dropped their sixth straight game in Charlotte on Friday after Stephen Jackson poured in 14 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter while dishing out six assists, as the Bobcats continued their stellar play at home with a 106-98 victory over Los Angeles.
Baron Davis finished with 24 points, seven assists and five steals for the Clippers, who have dropped nine straight on the road to fall to 7-27 as the guest this season.
"We couldn't get stops, turnovers," said Davis. "We just have to play better together that's all. On the defensive end and the offensive end."
Rasual Butler chipped in 18 points, while Travis Outlaw and Drew Gooden each tallied 16 points. Chris Kaman added 13 points and 11 boards for Los Angeles.
<< Surging Magic continue push towards postseason, visit Wizards
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The lowly Washington Wizards will continue playing out the
string tonight when they host Eastern Conference power Orlando.
The Wizards lost their sixth straight game last night in Auburn Hills when
Will Bynum provided a sp
<< Hawks welcome Pistons to Dixie
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The playoff bound Atlanta Hawks return to the cozy confines
of Philips Arena Saturday to take on a Detroit Pistons team headed for the NBA
Draft Lottery.
The Hawks salvaged the finale of their recent three-game road trip o
<< Blackhawks visit Flyers in afternoon clash
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One of the top teams in the Western Conference will head to
the East Coast today as the Chicago Blackhawks visit the Philadelphia Flyers
for an afternoon battle at Wachovia Center.
The Blackhawks have 93 points on the year
<< Panthers shoot for rare victory over Sharks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Florida needs all the victories it can muster from now
until the end of the season to even have a chance at making the playoffs. The
Panthers could have a tough time getting a win today, when they visit the
mighty San Jose Sh
Raptors resume road trip in Oakland vs. Warriors >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Raptors haven't been playing like a team headed
towards the postseason and will resume a four-game road trip Saturday night
against the Golden State Warriors in Oakland.
Toronto is currently eighth in the Easte
Habs and Bruins square off as playoff hopefuls >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens look to further their playoff
chances and defeat Boston for the fifth time in six meetings this year tonight
at the Bell Centre, while the Bruins hope to strengthen their hold on the
Eastern Conference'
Devils visit Islanders with first place in sight >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Devils will try to move into a first-place
tie in the Atlantic Division this evening when they take on the New York
Islanders at Nassau Coliseum.
The Devils picked up their second victory in a row last night
Coyotes hit the road to take on Hurricanes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Phoenix Coyotes will play their first road game in just
over a month this evening when they kick off a four-game swing versus the
Carolina Hurricanes at RBC Center.
The Coyotes are among the league leaders with 25 home
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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