Sum greater than parts at Stephen F. Austin

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/22/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Head coach J.C. Harper attributes Stephen F. Austin's turnaround over the past few seasons to a belief in the system he established.

"We had a plan, stayed on task with the plan, and haven't gotten off of it," the 2009 Southland Conference Coach of the Year said.

"That system relies on contributions from every aspect of Stephen F. Austin's football program, from the coaching staff, to the recruiters, to the athletic department to the players on the field. Harper notes that he "recruited guys that fit the system."

The system is now bearing considerable fruit.

In the midst of the turnaround is senior quarterback Jeremy Moses. The 2010 Walter Payton Award nominee is a deserving symbol of the Lumberjacks' improvement. He was the 2009 conference co-player of the year and is on pace to become the Southland's all-time leader in completions, touchdown passes, passing yards and total offense. With Moses at the helm last season, the Lumberjacks finished first in the Southland in total offense (468.9 yards per game) and second in points scored (34.8 ppg).

Harper is quick to sing Moses' praises, but continues to stress his "total team effort" philosophy. "In football, it is easier to talk about the offense," Harper said.

Generally, this tends to be the case. Most fans prefer the glitz and glam of a flashy offensive over the grit and gristle of a stalwart defense. It's the bright lights that make the eyes gleam, and it's touchdowns that make the fans scream.

Studying Harper's pedigree, it is clear to see which side of the ball he comes down on. Before taking over at Stephen F. Austin, Harper spent the vast majority of his career scheming to stop players like Moses. After a two-year graduate assistantship with Lou Holtz at Notre Dame, in which he worked with the offense, Harper began his career with defensive line coaching positions at Southwest Missouri State and Western Michigan. He has served as defensive coordinator for Southwest Missouri State, Northwestern State, Western Michigan and Stephen F. Austin.

Not surprisingly then, Harper points to a defender when remarking on his team's strides.

In 2007, Harper's inaugural head coaching season, the Lumberjacks failed to win a game. Decimated by injury, the team lost five players on opening day, including their top three running backs. In all, they utilized 12 players at the position throughout the season, including then-freshman linebacker Jabara Williams. Harper remembers how in one game Williams started at both running back and linebacker, while also contributing on special teams.

"I remember telling Jabara, 'I promise I'm gonna get you on one side of the ball,'" Harper said.

Harper kept his promise. In 2008, as the Lumberjacks improved to 4-8, Williams led the Southland Conference in tackles and was named First-Team All- SLC at linebacker. In 2009, the Jacks went 10-3 and earned an FCS playoff berth, eventually advancing to the second round.

Harper touts the system and Williams has proved to be an essential system guy - an individual willing to sacrifice personal gain for the betterment of the team.

Now Williams is entering his senior season as a Buck Buchanan Award nominee. He heads a unit which in 2009 ranked second in the SLC in both total defense and points allowed.

Aside from Williams, Harper says defensive linemen Kenneth Charles, Jacob Fincher and Rainey Sternes are players pivotal to the team's success.

Charles is another system guy. Last year, the 6-foot-3, 266-pound defensive end moved inside to tackle at Harper's request. Charles ended up earning Second-Team All-SLC honors.

Fincher, Harper hopes, is a defensive end capable of replacing departed playmaking lineman Tim Knickey. "He has shown it in practice, and is more powerful than Knicky," Harper said.

Sternes, a fifth-year senior, is expected to battle for a starting spot at defensive end.

Despite their varying status on the team, Harper considers all of these players pivotal - a potential defensive player of the year, a versatile all- conference performer, an unproven replacement and a fifth-year senior. It's a microcosm of "total team effort."

Harper's philosophy and the team's effort have proven to be effective. If patterns carry any weight, Stephen F. Austin should again prove to be an FCS playoff contender in 2010.

"We should know by our fifth game where we are at," Harper predicted. The Jacks open with tough games against Texas A&M, Albany, Northern Iowa and McNeese State.

Still, given his recent track record, it is safe to predict that Harper's team will be in a good place.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com

In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.

Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.

Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.

Memphis vs. Ohio State

Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.

UCLA vs. Kansas

In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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